Since August of last year, the Case-Shiller Dallas Home Price Index has steadily increased. Not by much, which is fine. Slow and steady wins the race. It’s increasing at about the same rate as the 20-city composite Home Price Index. I like that we’re seeing an upward trend overall and feel this is encouraging news for sellers in today’s market.
What does this index measure? It looks at the total value of the existing single-family housing supply in a given market. If the value of the supply goes up, it means sellers can justify stronger asking prices. If the value of the supply goes down, it means buyers have more leverage in negotiations.
We’re seeing an ever-so-small uptick in mortgage defaults on a national level. Since June of this year, the monthly increase in default rates has risen from .59% to currently .69%. To put this in perspective, the default rate in July, 2009 was 5.32%. A far cry from where we are now.
The headline this week from the Mortgage Bankers Association is that mortgage applications increased 8 percent from one week earlier on an unadjusted basis. Refinance applications are up 14 percent from the previous week and are up 133% from the same week one year ago. We can thank interest rates below 4% for this activity.
If you think jumping on the refinance bandwagon is a good idea, here's a tip from Tish Ashley at Highlands Residential Mortgage, "Low interest rates are not the only criteria to determine if a refinance will prove beneficial to the homeowner overall. While a lower payment and/or interest cost can be very alluring, other factors also play into the equation such as PMI amount, desired payoff term, and remaining time of ownership anticipated. When all of these variables are evaluated by a loan advisor and presented to the borrower, then the homeowner can make a fully informed decision about whether a refinance is the right move or not.”
For the most part, mortgage rates were steady this week compared to last week. Rates currently average 3.65% with .6% in fees and points. According to Freddie Mac’s Economic & Housing Research group, the expectation is that mortgage rates will continue to hover around this level for the rest of this calendar year.
THE DFW REAL ESTATE MARKET
Data for single-family homes in the entire North Texas MLS system.
Before we jump into the numbers and graphs, we'll give you the general overview.
While prices are slightly declining, it’s not substantial enough to cause concern. Sellers have to wait a little longer to get a contract and be more flexible when negotiating their contract. The number of homes selling is at a good pace and we don’t have a glut of inventory on the market. The market tends to slow a bit in the fall, so this activity is to be expected.
Average Sales Price
The average sales price fell to $316,092. It has been on the decline since peaking at $335,961 in June of this year.
Average Days on Market
The average days on market before going under contract has increased to 49 days. The low for 2019 was 44 days on the market in June.
Average Sales Percent of Original Price
Home sellers have to negotiate more off their list price and homes sell for an average of 4.4% less than list price.
Months of Inventory
We are holding steady at a 3.3 months supply of inventory. Most consider 6 months to be a balanced market, so we are still in a Seller’s market.
Everyone always asks, “Is it a seller’s market or is it a buyer’s market?” When you look at price and time to sell, it’s a seller’s market. Though it’s important to state that it’s a great market for buyer’s too because interest rates are nice and low.
If you want to dial-in the data more with neighborhood specific information, CLICK HERE.
Jennifer Shannon is a Texas real estate agent and broker, licensed since 2006.